Crude Continues to Fall as End of OPEC Oil Deal Moves Closer

Hedge funds trimmed their net-long position—the difference between bets on a price increase and wagers on a drop—in Brent crude by the most in almost a year

Crude Continues to Fall as End of OPEC Oil Deal Moves Closer

This, combined with news of an uptick in USA crude production, prompted steep declines in crude futures last week.

However, oil could jump to $100 in the event of a "complete collapse" in Venezuelan crude production, Parker said. Venezuela is now producing just 1.4 million barrels a day, down from 3 million barrels a day just a few years ago, while UBS AG Wealth Management forecasts a drop of about half a million barrels day from Iran.

The 1.8 million barrels a day that they've taken off the market is nearly entirely compensated for by the 1.53 million barrels a day of additional unconventional crude production from the United States, not to mention 640,000 of additional daily barrels that have come out of Canada.

A stonger dollar also dented oil prices, as political turmoil in Italy is generating concerns about the long-term health of the euro zone.

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US oil production C-OUT-T-EIA has surged by more than 27 percent in the past two years to 10.73 million bpd.

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US West Texas Intermediate crude was down $1.05, or 1.55%, at $66.83 a barrel, sitting around its lowest since 17 April. Prime Minister Dean Barrow in a press conference recently said that prices would be going up due to the rise in price on global markets.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russian Federation have agreed to curb output by about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) through 2018 to reduce global stocks, but the inventory overhang is now near OPEC's target.

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Saudi minister Khalid Al-Falih, who's been organizing meetings with major customers and producers discussing the Saudi commitment to stabilizing oil markets, is reportedly meeting his Kuwaiti and Emirati counterparts.

Baker Hughes BHGE, -2.72% on Friday reported that the number of active US rigs drilling for oil rose 15 to 859 in the most recent week.

"The regulation will send demand for middle distillates such as diesel and marine gasoil soaring, and refiners will have to shift some of the products they will be processing from crude oil", said Oilprice.com quoting analysts.

However, with USA becoming a major exporter of oil, higher oil prices up to a certain level can actually be beneficial with consumer loss being offset by rising capital investments by United States oil companies. Domestic oil production is at an all-time high of 10.7 million bpd, not far from Russia's.

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Meanwhile, supply issues surrounding Venezuela and Libya, and the possibility of disruption in Iran because of the sanctions propped up prices. In addition, US oil production is ramping up quite steadily.

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