When Trump in May announced plans to reimpose sanctions on Iran's oil exports, the market estimated a cut of about 300,000 to 700,000 barrels a day, according to Trafigura's Luckock.
One problem is the uncertainty over how much oil will be lost when the USA -led sanctions against Iran begin in November.
In its annual World Oil Outlook, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries forecast world supply of all hydrocarbons (primarily oil and liquified natural gas) would rise from a current 98.4 million barrels per day (mbd) to 104.5 million by 2023, and 111.9 million by 2040.
U.S. officials, including President Donald Trump, are trying to assure consumers and investors that enough supply will remain in the oil market while requesting producers raise their output.
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He further said all producers - OPEC and non-OPEC - wanted to keep the price of oil at around $80 per barrel.
Khaled al-Falih was speaking at a meeting in Algiers of about twenty member countries and non-Opec member signatories by the end of 2016 an agreement by which they pledged to limit their offers to raise the price of crude oil.
Fund managers are betting the introduction of sanctions on Iran will result in a shortage of seaborne crude on worldwide markets even while the landlocked USA inland market remains plentifully supplied.
The world's top oil producers, including OPEC members and non-members such as Russian Federation, ruled out any immediate extra increase in output at a meeting over the weekend in Algeria, despite calls by U.S. President Donald Trump for action to raise global supply to help lower prices.
Falih said Saudi Arabia has spare capacity to boost output but that this action was not necessary for now, and might not be needed next year because OPEC projects there will be a marked rise in oil production from non-OPEC countries which could outpace global demand.
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With supply and demand issues raging, $100 oil may not be far off at all.
Meanwhile, higher oil prices tend to benefit UK-listed companies such as BP and Royal Dutch Shell, which employ thousands of people in the North Sea and whose shares are staples in many United Kingdom pension funds.
"We will remember", the president added, implying that USA security support might be reassessed if OPEC members fail to cut crude prices.
Iranian leaders have already threatened to disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's busiest sea route for crude oil exports. "My information is that the markets are adequately supplied".
The Saudis and their allies appear to be trying to walk a fine line between placating Trump and not putting so much oil into the market to cause prices to crash - as they did in 2014, damaging their petroleum-dependent economies.
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Iran's representative to Opec, Hossein Kazempour Ardebili, the head of the iranian delegation in Algiers, has indicated that his country continues to honor its "share of production" and said to expect the client countries of Iran "exercise their sovereignty and do not submit to the instructions of (Donald) Trump".